Expertii (o parte)
 

Cine naiba or fii expertii astia si ce vor ei?

Ce inseamna expert in petrol? Sau in energie?

Geologists (Bartlett, Hubbert, Deffeyes, Campbell, Duncan, Laherrere, Ivanhoe, Youngquist, ),

 Geologically- and ecologically-oriented economists (Cleveland, Reynolds, Georgescu-Roegen, Daly ),

human ecologists (Heinberg), conservation biologists (Ehrlich)

Petroleum experts Colin Campbell, Jean Laherrere, Brian Fleay, Roger Blanchard, Richard Duncan, Walter Youngquist, and Albert Bartlett  (using various methodologies) have all estimated a "peak" in "conventional oil" around 2005. Moreover, the CEOs of Agip, ENI SpA, (Italian oil companies) and Arco have all published estimates of peak in 2005. So it seems like a reliable estimate.

Colin Campbell After being awarded a Ph.D at Oxford in 1957, Dr Campbell joined the oil industry as an exploration geologist. His career took him to Borneo, Trinidad, Colombia, Australia, Papua New Guinea, the USA, Ecuador, United Kingdom, Ireland, and Norway, ending as Executive Vice President of Fina Exploration in Norway in 1989.
Since then he has dedicated himself to researching the subject of oil depletion, writing two books and
numerous scientific papers.
.
He is now a Trustee of the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre ("ODAC"), a charitable organisation in London that is dedicated to researching the date and impact of the peak and decline of world oil production due to resource constraints, and raising awareness of the serious consequences. He has published extensively, and his recent articles have stimulated lively debate. His views are provocative yet carry the weight of a wide international experience.
THE END OF CHEAP OIL  by Colin J. Campbell and Jean H. Laherrère,
Scientific American, March 1998
Articolul aparut dupa cartea din 1997, cartea care a trezit pe multi din somn, inclusiv Agentia Internationala pentru Energie.
 
Jean Laherrère worked for TOTAL for thirty-seven years in a variety of successively more responsible roles encompassing exploration activities in the Sahara, Australia, Canada and Paris. Since retiring from TOTAL, Mr. Laherrère has consulted worldwide on oil and gas potential and production. He has served on the Society of Petroleum Engineers/World Petroleum Congress ad hoc committee on joint definitions of petroleum resources and the task force on “Perspectives Energie 2010-2020” for the Commissariat Général du Plan - France

Cutler J. Cleveland  Associate Professor of Geography and Director, Center for Energy and Environmental Studies Boston University and vice-president in the International Society of Ecological Economics.

Kenneth S. Deffeyes. Author of Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage, Kenneth S. Deffeyes is Professor Emeritus at Princeton University. Before joining the Princeton faculty in 1967, he conducted research at the Shell Oil research laboratory in Houston and taught at the University of Minnesota and Oregon State University.

 M. King Hubbert October 5th, 1903 -- October 11th, 1989.  Primul geofizician care a calculat data apogeului productiei de petrol in SUA. Tatal curbei ce ii poarta numele. Primul om ce a facut o analiza stiintifica despre epuizarea zacamintelor de petrol.  In the early 50’s the eminent geophysicist, M. King Hubbert, combined the principles of geology, physics and mathematics into a predictive model for forecasting oil production decline curves. Hubbert's predictive analysis was published in 1956. His model enabled him to predict that crude oil production in the U.S. would peak in the early 70’s and then go into decline. Hubbert’s predictions generated a lot of controversy at the time since it was widely believed that U.S. production would remain high due to new discoveries and the application of technology. Hubbert’s analysis was uncannily accurate. Oil production in the U.S. peaked in 1970.1 From that point forward, U.S. oil production went into decline. The U.S. would no longer be energy independent. From the early 1970’s to today the U.S. has become increasingly dependent on foreign sources of oil and gas to meet its energy needs. Since the 1970’s the U.S. began its transition from oil surpluses to oil deficits that have grown in each decade.

 

Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen, 1906-1994. Român. A trait in România pâna in 1948 când a fugit in America. Unul din cei mai remarcabili si profunzi gânditori in economie moderna.  http://cepa.newschool.edu/het/profiles/georgescu.htm     Articol integral despre energie si miturile economiei din "Southern Economic Journal" 1975 http://www.geocities.com/combusem/GEORGESC.HTM  ;    http://dieoff.org/page148.htm "Energy and Economic Myths" by Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen

 L. F. (Buz) Ivanhoe was Founder of the M. King Hubbert Center for Petroleum Supply Studies  http://hubbert.mines.edu/  at the Colorado School of Mines whose mission is to assemble, study, and disseminate global petroleum supply data. He is also president of Novum Corp., Ojai, California, is a registered geologist, geophysicist, engineer and oceanographer with 50 years domestic and international experience in petroleum exploration with various private and government oil companies. He was associated with Occidental Petroleum from 1968 to 1980 where he was senior advisor of worldwide evaluations of petroleum basins from 1974-80. On leaving Oxy, he moved to Santa Barbara and formed Novum, an international energy exploration consulting firm, now located in Ojai, California. Mr. Ivanhoe is the author of numerous papers on various technical subjects, including some 50 on the evaluation of foreign prospective basins and projections of future global oil supplies. For more information, read the Center's Newsletters.

Youngquist. Retired Professor of Geology at the University of Oregon, Dr. Walter Youngquist is the author of GeoDestinies: The inevitable control of Earth resources over nations and individuals. The Post-Petroleum Paradigm Dr. Walter Youngquist gives a great overview of Peak Oil and related issues.Dr. Youngquist has collaborated with Richard Duncan in developing scenarios of future oil production.

Dr. Richard Duncan has developed an extensive model of the coming Global Hubbert Peak, Heuristic Oil Forecasting Method, using Stella® modeling software. Based on his investigations, he has proposed The Olduvai Theory of Industrial Civilization. Dr. Duncan reminds us of the fragility of our energy infrastructure.

 Duncan & Youngquist's new World oil production model at http://www.halcyon.com/duncanrc/ .  To run this model one must download the free Stella Run-Time at http://www.hps-inc.com/products/STELLA/runtime.html .

 

Albert Bartlett [Professor Emeritus, Physics Department, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO]

 

Jim Puplava Financial Advisor  delivers an extremely thorough and insightful analysis of the economic aspects of declining oil production.   Powershift: Oil, Money, and War