Matthew Simmons

 

Cine este si ce spune el

Matthew Simmons este un personaj cheie. Este membru in consiliul energetic al administratiei Bush, a facut parte din grupul pentru studiul energiei al vicepresdintelui Cheney in 2001 si este membu al Consiliului pentru Afaceri Externe. Este presedintele firmei de investitii bancare Simmons & Co International cu un portofoliu de investitii de aproximativ 56 miliarde dolari.

Printre  geologi este cunoscut pentru doua lucruri aparent contradictorii: Este un fervent sustinator a lui George W. Bush si in acelasi timp singurul personaj oficial care vorbeste deschis despre declinul petrolului si al gazelor naturale.

Matthew Simmons is the CEO of the world's largest Energy Investment Bank, Simmons & Company International . Its clients include Halliburton; Baker, Botts, LLP; Dynegy; Kerr-McGee; and the World Bank. Since 1993, it has underwritten or financed 18 transactions valued at more than $350 million. Of those, six were valued at more than $1 billion. Simmons is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and serves on the National Petroleum Council's Natural Gas Task Force. He has a lot to say about the Northeast power grid blackout, its causes, and what they imply for the future. He also has a lot to say about Peak Oil and Gas.

The situation is so dire that George W. Bush's Energy Adviser, Matthew Simmons, has acknowledged that "The situation is desperate. This is the world's biggest serious question." In an August 2003 interview, Mr. Simmons was asked if it was time for Peak Oil to become part of the public policy debate. He responded:

 "It is past time.  As I have said, the experts and politicians have no Plan B to fall back on.  If energy peaks, particularly while 5 of the world’s 6.5 billion people have little or no use of modern energy, it will be a tremendous jolt to our economic well-being and to our heath - greater than anyone could ever imagine."

 When asked if there is a solution, Simmons responded:

 "I don’t think there is one.  The solution is to pray.  Under the best of circumstances, if all prayers are answered there will be no crisis for maybe two years. After that it’s a certainty."

 It's not just Simmons sounding the alarm.  According to Secretary of Energy Spencer Abraham:

 "America faces a major energy supply crisis over the next two decades.  The failure to meet this challenge will threaten our nation's economic prosperity, compromise our national security, and literally alter the way we lead our lives."

 The statements of Vice President Dick Cheney have been equally alarming.  In late 1999, Cheney stated:

 “By some estimates, there will be an average of two percent annual growth in global oil demand over the years ahead, along with, conservatively, a three-percent natural decline in production from existing reserves.”

 Cheney ended on a disturbing note, “That means by 2010 we will need on the order of an additional 50 million barrels a day.”

A report commissioned by Cheney and released in 2001 was no less rosy:

“The most significant difference between now and a decade ago is the extraordinarily rapid erosion of spare capacities at critical segments of energy chains. Today, shortfalls appear to be endemic. Among the most extraordinary of these losses of spare capacity is in the oil arena.” 

 

 

Presentation Calculating Oil & Gas Reserves: An Art Form Or A Science?

Presentation The Story Of Natural Gas: Supply, Demand, And A Brick Wall

Presentation The Saudi Arabian Oil Miracle

Presentation Outlook 2004: Easy Questions...Hard Answers

Presentation Our Energy Problems Are Serious

Presentation The Future Of Energy

Pagina web a lui Matthew Simmons

 http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/research.aspx?Type=msspeeches

http://www.guerrillanews.com/sci-tech/doc2927.html

Iata câteva din documentele lui Simmons:

 

Calcaiul lui Ahile din Oman

Cimpurile petroliere gigantice pot colapsa

    Yibal: Un cimp petrolifer gigantic este descoperit in 1963.

            Productia incepe in 1969

            Injectia apei incepe in 1972

            Puturile verticale devin inutile in 1990

            Puturile orizontale (noua tehnica de extractie) recreaza jetul fabulos de petrol / put

            Productia atinge maximul in 1997: 250.000 barili / zi

            In 2001 productia scade la 90.000 barili / zi

            In 2004 Yibal produce mai putin de 40.000 barili /zi

Morala: Declinul a venit pe neasteptate

Yibal probabil va produce in final 44% pina la 50% din esimarile originale. OOIP (after EOR)

Productia fabuloasa a cāmpului petrolifer Ghawar (cel mai mare din lume- Arabia Saudita)

Ghawar este cel mai mare cāmp petrolifer din lume cu o productie de aproximativ 5 milioane de barili / zi.

Acest cāmp are 60 de ani. In 1975 estimarile ( Exxon, Mobil, Chevron si Texaco)  pentru cantitatea aflata acolo mergeau pāna la 60 miliarde de barili. Productia cumulativa pāna in 2003: 55 miliarde barili.  Firma Saudi ARAMCO sustine acum ca mai exista inca 125 de miliarde barili in Ghawar. Oare cāt de rau au gresit Exxon, Mobil, Chevron si Texaco in 1975? Vom afla in cātiva ani.

 "Trust Me" Era Is Over "Trust Me" Era Is Over

n Shell’s stunning proven reserve write-down was a wakeup

call.

n Most of world’s "proven reserves" are simply "statements".

n Some of the "statements" have to be wrong.

n The majority of the public E&P companies might have

overbooked reserves.

n Finding and development costs have doubled.

n Daily BOE production is flattening out.

n "Trust Me" was fine when world’s oil supply was young.

n The world’s oil supply is now extremely mature.

When You Are Interviewed by Mainstream Media, Do You Try to Tell Them About Oil Peak and Decline?" http://ram.globalpublicmedia.com/RAM/2003/02/MattSimmons.Q2.01-2.2003-02-10.ram  Atentie fisiere video 10 Mb Real Media

How Did We Get Into the Current Situation?"
http://ram.globalpublicmedia.com/RAM/2003/02/MattSimmons.Q4.01-4.2003-02-10.ram

How Did You Come to Be an Advocate for Oil Peak and Decline?" http://ram.globalpublicmedia.com/RAM/2003/02/MattSimmons.Q6.01-6.2003-02-10.ram

 

http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/files/IEA-SOM.pdf